A new heart drug from Novartis looks like it will be big, as two surveys done by cardiologists are citing its potential.

The drug, LCZ696, seeks to reduce mortality from chronic heart failure, and is doing so with huge success. Prior to this drug, doctors have struggled to treat chronic heart failure by using old generic medicines that did not work well.

In March, however, a clinical trial for LCZ696 was stopped early because the drug was actually performing incredibly well, with patients reaping very positive benefits.

Although how well the drug works won’t be officially disclosed until it is shown at a medical meeting in Spain later this month, various health experts have made their own assessments based on the trial.

According to 25 health experts that were polled by Cowen, the expected risk reduction will be 23 percent, which is measured by heart failure hospitalizations and deaths. A similar survey done by Deutsche Bank concluded that a 15 percent risk reduction would put the drug on the map, while having over a 20 percent risk reduction would expand the drug’s patient pool.

“We don’t know what the numbers look like but if you did have a 15 to 16 percent reduction in relative risk … that would be a number that translates to a pretty darn big drug,” said Novartis Chief Executive Joe Jimenez.

The drug is expected to be big for Novartis, with the company expecting the drug to sell $2 billion to $5 billion annually. Meanwhile, Cowen expects the drug to have the potential of making $3 to $6 billion, while Deutsche Bank expects to see as much as $10 billion.

These sales numbers could refill the company’s bank accounts, as its blood pressure pill Diovan has been facing stiff competition from generic pills. LCZ696 is viewed as a great way to drive up company stock prices.

The full disclosure of the drug’s potential will be released at a medical meeting in Barcelona, Spain on August 31.



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