President Obama has a comfortable lead in California, but it is unlikely he will have the historic margin of victory that he had in 2008 in the state. Even though California is still hugely Democratic the luster of his 2008 victory has faded somewhat.
Polls showed that Obama has not been able to pull in the people who do not historically support the Democrats. The falloff in Obama’s appeal across demographic and party lines has at this point translated into a 14 point lead over Mitt Romney the Republican presidential nominee amongst those people likely to vote. That is well down from the historic 24-point margin Obama enjoyed in 2008, which is the biggest in modern times.
The exact same trends that have made the presidential race tight in battleground states are apparent in California. The most evident is the decline in men and white voters support for Obama.
In 2008, President Obama won the race for male voters in California by 18 points over John McCain the Republican candidate. Currently Obama has just a 1 point lead over male voters who are likely to vote. Among white male voters, Obama defeated McCain by 2 points and now Romney is leading that group by 17 points.
The poll showed that the level of support for Obama now reflects upon the traditional advantage a Democrat has in California, instead of exceeding it like he did with his historic win in 2008.
Obama’s current margin is 3 point less than Senator Dianne Feinstein has over Elizabeth Emken her Republican challenger in the same recent poll.
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