Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) research team is apparently working on new technologies that would help predict the future. Calling it a ‘forecasting methodology,’ researchers at Microsoft are predicting what is going to happen next on the basis of the data collected in the past. Researchers were able to predict the ‘next’ by analyzing the outcome of recent events.
The methodology is no magical wand, however, is purely mathematics that when combined with data based on outcomes of past events, predicts the next occurrence with a near 100-percent accuracy. Researchers used the probability concept in mathematics to judge the outcome of future occurrences.
The Redmond giant has already made it public for people around to world to vote on various issues such as who will win the world cup or who is going to be the next President of the US. The Prediction Lab website launched by the Redmond giant will allow anyone to register and predict the outcome of various happening topics, including NFL match, around the world.
Researchers are already predicting the outcome of the recent Scotland Independence referendum. David Rothschild, who predicted the 2012 Presidential Elections, is again predicting that the result for the Scotland Independence referendum will have a majority of votes stating ‘No.’
“The polls track the sentiment of the people who are answering the poll at the time,” Rothschild said as he awaited the results in Scotland. “My forecast predicts what will happen on Election Day. Clearly, the sentiment of the people at the time of the polls is a critical component on any forecast of Election Day, but not the only one.”
However on the flip side, there is a problem associated with the Representational Polling. Earlier, the polling prediction used to depend on the reach of the representative to the people who will cast a vote. However, for the past decade, increase in a number of smartphones and devices created hurdles that make the prediction an intricate task.
“Standard polling looks at a respondent as, for example, a male from New York,” Rothschild says. “The way we look we look at it is: a male and a person from New York. I hope to find other potential polltakers who are male and other potential polltakers who are from New York. And from that, by breaking people into their demographics, we’re able to allow all users to inform the likely polling of all other users.”